A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the nation and triggered chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. They composes two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
