Starmer's Backers Begin 'Halt Andy Burnham' Effort to Block Mayor's Commons Return

Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a concerted campaign to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a comeback to parliament. This action comes after the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an impending by-election.

Significant Obstacles in the Selection Procedure

Several members on the Labour Party's powerful NEC have reportedly suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection procedure. This is primarily due to the sizable number of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are keen to avert any future leadership challenge.

The Labour hierarchy reportedly sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended departure, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the considerable expense and electoral danger of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Last year, he prompted anger within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he stated that many MPs had urged him to run for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a return to parliament to possibly stand for the Labour leadership if a contest to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Mayor have warned against overstating the extent of any planning, stating he is passionate about his current role and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Against a backdrop of polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only senior Labour figure with favourable public approval ratings.

Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple hurdles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then win the by-election against challenges from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any potential bid for the leadership.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

Senior Labour figures have indicated that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already in progress, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally said that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to stop talking about possible contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have reportedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

Several sources also shared concerns about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Union Influence and Procedural Fears

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. There is also speculation the body could enforce an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, a supporter warned against presuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The trade unions hold a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently remaining quiet, insiders suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The constituency in question has a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform is expected to mount a significant challenge, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.

Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP confirmed he was stepping down due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He is also under a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his involvement in an inappropriate online group.